You must make estimated tax payments for the current tax year if both of the following apply:
You expect to owe at least $1,000 in tax for the current tax year after subtracting your withholding and refundable credits.
You expect your withholding and refundable credits to be less than the smaller of:
90% of the tax to be shown on your current year’s tax return, or
100% of the tax shown on your prior year’s tax return. (Your prior year tax return must cover all 12 months.)
There are special rules for:
Farmers and fishermen
Certain household employers
Certain higher income taxpayers
Nonresident aliens