OECD Report December 2020: Economic Forecast Summary

The economy is recovering following the sharp fall in GDP and dramatic rise in the unemployment rate in the first half of 2020. Real GDP is anticipated to contract by 3.7% in 2020, before rising by 3.2% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. The unemployment rate will gradually fall, but will remain elevated compared with the pre-pandemic period. This reflects activity in some sectors, such as hospitality and transportation, continuing to be impacted by the pandemic and impediments to cross-sectoral labour reallocation. A general rollout of an effective vaccine in the latter half of 2021 will allow an easing of containment measures and strengthen confidence.

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More than 110 countries and jurisdictions agreed to review two key concepts of the international tax system, responding to a mandate from the G20 Finance Ministers to work on the implications of digitalisation for taxation.

The members of the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on BEPS are working towards a consensus-based solution by 2020, as set out in their Interim Report on the Tax Challenges Arising from Digitalisation.

Building on the 2015 BEPS Action 1 Report, the Interim Report includes an in-depth analysis of the changes to business models and value creation arising from digitalisation, and identifies characteristics that are frequently observed in certain highly digitalized business models. Describing the potential implications for the international tax rules, the Interim Report identifies the positions that different countries hold, which drive their approach to possible solutions. These approaches range from those countries that consider no action is needed, to those that consider there is a need for action that would take into account user contributions, through to others who consider that any changes should apply to the economy more broadly. The Interim Report lays the ground to move forward at the OECD towards a long-term multilateral solution in the next phase of work.

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