Shopping Trends And Taxes

I like to look at trends because they are interesting and many have tax implications. Trends may indicate a need to update or modernize tax rules or systems. I’m a bit behind on blogging on this, but several weeks ago, there was an article in Fortune – Phil Wahba, “Major Wall Street Firm Expects 25% of U.S. Malls to Close by 2022,” 5/31/17. Reasons included bankruptcies and continuing growth in retail e-commerce sales.

I remember when the U.S. Census Bureau first started reporting retail sales for e-commerce in the 1990s and it was less than 1%. They just updated data for 2015 and report that e-commerce retail sales represent 7.2% of total sales for 2015 (it was 6.4% in 2014). That doesn’t seem like a lot to me. In contrast, the US Census Bureau reports that for 2015, e-commerce sales of merchant wholesalers represented 30.2% of total sales (it was 28.1% in 2014).

Are retail e-commerce sales going to increase to the point were 25% of U.S. malls will close in the next five years? Seems high to me.  I expect re-purposing where, perhaps, we might do more online shopping while at the mall looking at samples of what we can buy, and getting a latte and recharging our smartphones.  That would use less retail space. Malls might add more ways for people to hang out – activities, fairs, etc.

Tax implications?  A few:

  • More online shopping can mean more uncollected use tax although I suspect a lot of the e-commerce growth will be with Amazon that collects tax in all states (at least on their direct sales).
  • If malls turn into abandoned buildings or vacant lots, property taxes will go down. Is there another need for them?  With an aging population, perhaps the space gets turned into living spaces for older folks – single level, close to public transportation and medical facilities, etc.

What do you think? Will we see 25% of malls close? What will happen to the space?

Annette Nellen, CPA, Esq., is a professor in and director of San Jose State University’s graduate tax program (MST), teaching courses in tax research, accounting methods, property transactions, state taxation, employment tax, ethics, tax policy, tax reform, and high technology tax issues.

Annette is the immediate past chair of the AICPA Individual Taxation Technical Resource Panel and a current member of the Executive Committee of the Tax Section of the California Bar. Annette is a regular contributor to the AICPA Tax Insider and Corporate Taxation Insider e-newsletters. She is the author of BNA Portfolio #533, Amortization of Intangibles.

Annette has testified before the House Ways & Means Committee, Senate Finance Committee, California Assembly Revenue & Taxation Committee, and tax reform commissions and committees on various aspects of federal and state tax reform.

Prior to joining SJSU, Annette was with Ernst & Young and the IRS.

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